Probability Seminar
Thursday, September 30, 2021, 3:15pm, Virtual
David Aldous (UC Berkeley, Statistics)
Can one prove existence of an infectiousness threshold (for a pandemic) in very general models of disease spread?

Abstract:

Intuitively, in any kind of disease transmission model with an infectiousness parameter, there should exist a critical value of the parameter separating a very likely from a very unlikely resulting pandemic. But even formulating a general conjecture is challenging. In the most simplistic model (SI) of transmission, one can prove this for an essentially arbitrary large weighted contact network. The proof for SI depends on a simple lemma concerning hitting times for increasing set-valued Markov processes. Can one extend to SIR or SIS models over similarly general networks, where the lemma is no longer applicable? [video]

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