Talk 11533 data/Spring

Mathematical Biology Seminar
Friday, March 12, 2021, 12:00pm, Virtual
Omar Saucedo (Virginia Tech University, Mathematics)
Modeling the Role of Superspreaders in Infectious Disease Outbreaks

The importance of host transmissibility in disease emergence has been demonstrated in historical and recent pandemics that involve infectious individuals, known as superspreaders, who are capable of transmitting the infection to a large number of susceptible individuals. To investigate the impact of superspreaders on epidemic dynamics, we formulate deterministic and stochastic models that incorporate differences in superspreaders versus nonsuperspreaders. In particular, continuous-time Markov chain models are used to investigate epidemic features associated with the presence of superspreaders in a population. We parameterize the models for two case studies, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and Ebola. In this talk, we will explore how superspreaders impact the probability of an outbreak and time to outbreak via mathematical analysis and numerical simulations. Email ciocanel@math.duke.edu to request the Zoom link and password for the talk (or subscribe to announcements at https://lists.duke.edu/sympa/info/mathbio-seminar).

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