Population Growth Models

Part 3.5: Comparison of Models with Different Population Data

Not only are projections of world population subject to question, but there is not agreement on the historical data. The United Nations has a slightly different set of historical data and predictions from those of the US Census Bureau.

1. Go to the United Nations site World Population Growth from Year 0 to 2050, and record the world population values listed there from year 1000 to 1990. Use that data, in place of the data supplied in this module, to recalculate your coalition model.

2. Use your new model to estimate the world population in 1995, 2000, 2010, and 2020. How do these projections compare with those you obtained in Part 3.4?

3. Compare the world population predictions of your two models for 2000, 2010, and 2020 to the world population predictions given at the U. S. Census Bureau and the United Nations for the same dates.

4. Recall that the assumption underlying the coalition model was that h would turn out to be "small." Was it small for either of your models?

5. The title of the 1960 paper by von Foerster, Mora, and Amiot was "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November A. D. 2026." How close are your predictions of Doomsday to theirs? (Keep in mind that you were working with more "reliable" data before 1960, plus later data not accessible to them, so there is no reason for your dates to be the same.)

Here are some additional links for further study:

• Visit our sister site at Montana State for a completely different take on the Census Bureau data.

• Visit the Population Reference Bureau for much more information about human population growth.

• Visit Zero Population Growth for information about the problems of overpopulation.

• Visit the United Nations home page, and search for "world population" for current information on population estimates, projections, and problems.